The Political Future of Nawaz Sharif: A Return to Power or a Declining Era?

Nawaz Sharif, the three-time Prime Minister of Pakistan and leader of the Pakistan Muslim League-Nawaz (PML-N), continues to play a defining role in the country’s political landscape.

Despite being disqualified from office in 2017 and living in exile for years, his influence remains strong, particularly in Punjab, Pakistan’s most populous and politically significant province.

As Pakistan grapples with economic crises and political instability following the 2024 general elections, the question of Nawaz Sharif’s political future is more pressing than ever.

A Veteran Statesman: Sharif’s Enduring Legacy

Nawaz Sharif’s political career, which spans over four decades, has been marked by both triumph and controversy. His three terms as Prime Minister saw substantial infrastructural development, economic reforms, and a complex relationship with the military.

However, his legacy is clouded by his ouster in 1999, his role in the Panama Papers scandal, and subsequent corruption charges that led to his disqualification and prison sentence in 2017. Despite these setbacks, Nawaz Sharif’s PML-N has consistently been one of the largest political forces in Pakistan.

In exile since 2019 due to health issues, Sharif’s presence looms large over Pakistan’s politics. His return to the country is not just a personal decision but a calculated political move, with implications for the country’s future.

2024: A New Turning Point

With Pakistan facing one of its most challenging periods—marked by economic instability, rising inflation, and political division—the 2024 general elections became a battleground for old and new political forces.

The Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaf (PTI), once the dominant force under Imran Khan, was weakened by military establishment restrictions and the disqualification of many of its leaders, including Khan himself. This political vacuum gave PML-N an opportunity to reclaim its lost ground. However, Nawaz Sharif’s future still depends on several key factors:

Legal Challenges and Political Rehabilitation

Although Nawaz Sharif returned to Pakistan in October 2023, his legal battles are far from over. He still faces corruption charges and convictions that could limit his ability to formally return to power. Whether the courts will absolve him of these charges or impose further restrictions will be a decisive factor in shaping his political future.

Moreover, Nawaz’s political rehabilitation also depends on his ability to negotiate with the military establishment. Traditionally, the military has played a powerful role in Pakistan’s politics, and Nawaz’s tense relationship with the top brass has often led to his downfall.

His future trajectory will likely be influenced by how well he can navigate these sensitive relationships, especially as Pakistan’s military establishment exerts influence over political processes.

The Leadership Transition within PML-N

As Nawaz Sharif’s health remains a concern, discussions about succession within the PML-N have gained momentum. His brother, Shehbaz Sharif, who served as Prime Minister from 2022-2023, is widely seen as a capable leader but lacks the mass appeal that Nawaz commands.

Maryam Nawaz, Nawaz Sharif’s daughter, has also emerged as a key figure within the party and is a vocal critic of the PTI and the establishment. However, questions remain about her ability to lead PML-N in a deeply polarized political environment.

Nawaz Sharif’s return to Pakistan may signal his willingness to remain at the helm of the party, but a transition in leadership—whether to Shehbaz or Maryam—will be inevitable in the near future.

Whether Nawaz can guide this transition smoothly while retaining the PML-N’s electoral strength will be crucial in determining his political legacy.

The Popular Support Base: Can It Endure?

Nawaz Sharif’s political career has been defined by his ability to mobilize mass support, particularly among Punjab’s urban middle class. His development-oriented policies and focus on infrastructure projects such as the motorways, metro buses, and energy projects have earned him a loyal base of voters.

However, the political landscape of Pakistan has evolved significantly since his last stint in power. PTI, despite its internal divisions and challenges, still enjoys substantial support, especially among younger voters who seek change beyond the traditional politics of PML-N and the Pakistan Peoples Party (PPP).

Sharif’s challenge will be to reconnect with an electorate that may have grown weary of dynastic politics while ensuring that PML-N remains relevant in a rapidly changing political landscape.

Economic Stewardship: A Key Focus

Nawaz Sharif’s political platform has traditionally been centered around economic growth and infrastructure development. His leadership has often been associated with periods of economic expansion, especially in the 1990s and during his third term (2013-2017).

In a post-pandemic world, where Pakistan’s economy is fragile, Sharif could try to position himself as a seasoned leader capable of delivering stability.

If Sharif aims for another term or to shape the next government, economic policy will be a key battleground. Pakistan’s foreign debt, inflation, and currency devaluation are pressing issues that demand immediate attention.

Voters may look for economic stability and Sharif’s past record could work to his advantage, but the global economic environment has changed drastically, and his old policies may not suffice in dealing with the current challenges.

The Path Forward: A Mixed Bag of Challenges

The future of Nawaz Sharif is far from certain. While his political comeback has energized the PML-N, his return to power faces significant hurdles. His ability to overcome legal challenges, rebuild bridges with the military, and address internal leadership transitions within PML-N will determine whether he can remain a central figure in Pakistan’s politics.

Nawaz Sharif’s future also depends on whether he can once again resonate with the Pakistani electorate. As the nation faces mounting economic pressures, voters may prioritize governance and solutions to everyday issues over political dynasties. His political survival could hinge on his capacity to adapt to the changing political and social landscape of Pakistan.

For now, Nawaz Sharif remains a dominant figure in Pakistan’s political sphere. His comeback in the 2024 elections is both a testament to his resilience and a reflection of Pakistan’s enduring political divides.

Whether he can translate this return into lasting political power, however, remains to be seen. As Pakistan navigates the complexities of its political and economic challenges, the question remains: Will Nawaz Sharif continue to shape the future of Pakistan, or is his era nearing its conclusion?